Friday, February 04, 2011

January 2011 Unemployment Statistics - A Big 'WTF?'

Statistics kept by the government Bureau of Labor and Statistics showed a drop in the unemployment rate last month from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent, with only 36,000 new jobs created.

I heard that this morning and thought...WTF?

Those numbers don't make any sense. Especially since I'd seen where Gallup was projecting 9.8 percent unemployment. Others have the rate higher. I'm still wondering how they came at that number.

Geoff at Ace of Spades has an explanation.
...It's partly because the number of people who have dropped out of the labor force has gotten so large. For example, the Household Survey says that 622K people dropped out of unemployment. Of these, 100K found jobs, 200K are "marginally attached" (i.e., they'll show up in the U-4, U-5, and U-6 unemployment rates), and 300K have dropped out of the work force entirely (they won't show up in any of the unemployment calculations). When 5/6 of your "improvement" is actually bad news, it's obvious that the U-3, and even the U-6 unemployment rates are not very useful (except in harassing the administration, of course).
Rick Manning from Americans for Prosperity added this, in an e-mail:
"It simply is not credible that the unemployment rate could drop by .4% with only 36,000 jobs created. This supposed drop is at least partially a result of the Obama Administration changing the methodology for determining who was in the workforce. This change in methodology coupled with a massive drop in the top line unemployment rate leaves the data open to the perception that they may have been politically manipulated.

"However, taking the numbers at face value, the Obama Administration cannot avoid the harsh reality that their economic policies have resulted in almost one million people leaving the workforce in the past two months alone. The January reported decline of 504,000 is a startling indictment of the failure of the past two years, as Americans have voted with their feet to leave the workforce.

"The bottom line is that our nation needs to create more than 100,000 jobs a month for sustained economic growth, and this report reveals that the main driver of the unemployment rate decline is that Americans are giving up on the American dream of getting a job and making a better life for their families.

"In the past year, more than two million Americans have left the labor force with the labor participation rate dropping from 64.8% to 64.2%. The labor participation rate when Obama took office in January 2009 stood at 65.5% when Obama took office in January 2009.

"This is a devastating indictment of the Obama economic policy, and if not reversed will have severe implications for our nation's economic future."
The way this Regime is fudging the unemployment numbers reminds me of a trick I played when I was in the fifth grade, my the worst of all of my years of government school. I failed two subjects in the first quarter, partially from not realizing I needed glasses, but also a good dose of childish goofing off (acting like a smart ass). Since I was grounded from several of my favorite things I liked to do, until my grades came up, I resorted to a bit of dishonesty. Because I didn't want their disapproval, and wanted to make them happy, I brought home graded papers for my parents to review that showed me doing good to somewhat better, while the average and not-so-great work I left shoved in my desk at school.

When the second quarter ended, my grades had improved. No failing grades, but they weren't as high as my parents were led to believe from the work I'd brought home. At first, I played dumb, but my conscience was hitting me and then I had to confess that I hadn't shown them all my work.

So Barack Hussein Obama is doing to America what I did to my parents as a fifth grader--hiding the bad numbers to make his grades look better than they really are. Especially since the time is near for Campaign 2012 to begin. He (and his willing cheerleaders in the Lapdog Media) are doing everything they can to make us believe things are much better than they really are. All you have to do is take a look around and question this illusion of a recovery to the reality you encounter every day.

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